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May 20, 2008
Win No. 1? That's only half the story
If the Charlotte Bobcats somehow beat the odds tonight and receive the No. 1 pick in the draft lottery, it would serve as a straw ballot on the current administration's taste for risk.
There's little hope of that happening -- the Bobcats have a 2.8 percent chance in the weighted lottery -- but a choice between Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley would define how Michael Jordan and Rod Higgins feel about the risk/reward proposition.
I contacted three player-personnel executives off other teams the past week and each one drew the same conclusion:
Beasley is the safer pick; a solid, physical power forward who will frequently assemble 20-point, 10-rebound games. Rose has more star potential at a position that is harder to fill (point guard), but there are more questions about whether he'll reach his potential.
This reminds me a bit of the 2004 draft, when the Orlando Magic chose Dwight Howard's athletic potential over Emeka Okafor's established college resume. Howard was the riskier proposition, but now he's the All-Star, probably the best center in the league.
The contrast isn't as dramatic this time -- Beasley and Rose each spent one season in college ball, under the NBA's new eligibility rule -- but risk would be an interesting proposition for the Jordan administration, particularly since the Adam Morrison selection at No. 3 two years ago looks like a shaky pick.
Assuming the Bobcats pick eighth (by far the most likely scenario), they'll still face some risk. An intriguing name to keep in mind: Louisiana State forward Anthony Randolph. He's young (a freshman) and he's slight (200 pounds over a 6-foot-10 body). Randolph would have to gain a lot of bulk and strength to be an NBA power forward, but the Bobcats clearly need more long, athletic bodies at forward to complement Okafor at center.
I see nbadraft.net has Stanford's Brook Lopez lasting to the eighth pick. If that happens, the Bobcats should grab him without hesitation. But the execs I talk to doubt Lopez lasts beyond No. 5.
Stay tuned; we'll find out where they pick early tonight.
Posted by Observer Sports on May 20, 2008 at 09:49 AM | Permalink
Comments
I don't think Rose/Beasley is an accurate comparison to Howard/Okafor. Rose and Beasley are both young and raw and have high ceilings. I don't think Okafor had a high ceiling.....Beasley could be elite.
Posted by: Andrew | May 20, 2008 10:14:42 AM
I think the 8th pick will come down to Randolph, Kevin Love, and Russell Westbrook. Love has a great all around game and would complement Okafor perfectly but by picking mistakes in Morrison and May the Bobcats may get killed in the media for drafting a fat white guy. The Morrison pick set this franchise back 5 years. If Roy or Gay were picked then it would be a no brainer to pick Love. He can shoot, rebound, block shots, score down low, and is the best passing big man to come into the NBA in years.
If Love is picked he may get a similar nickname to McMay.....McLovin. Love has lost 13 pounds though after the bball season to get in shape for the draft.
I think Love would get more playing time than Randolph under Larry Brown. Westbrook would also get PT bc of his lock down defense and athleticism.
Posted by: Mike | May 20, 2008 10:19:44 AM
I think Mike's comments further illustrate what Rick was talking about in the blog about risk - but with the #8 pick.
Kevin Love would be the nice safe pick. He is a great passer, has good fundamentals, and has nice offensive skills around the basket. However, he doesn't have a lot of upside and is not as athletic. He would be a good solid player for years to come, but not quite on an all-star level.
Randolph, on the other hand, has a lot of upside and is extremely athletic, and could potentially turn into an all-star caliber player. However, there is also a high chance that he could be a bust as well.
Would the Bobcats risk the pick on an Anthony Randolph, a kid with great potential, or go with the safer pick, Love, who would be a solid, yet not spectacular player. I guess we will have to wait and see. Of course, all of this is moot if the Cats get a top 3 pick, or if someone like Brook Lopez falls.
Posted by: Chris | May 20, 2008 10:48:53 AM
Yeah...Okafor's ceiling is terrible. It's not like he's one of about ten players in the league averaging a career double-double.
Posted by: Michael Procton | May 20, 2008 11:02:20 AM
Mike, I'd rather have Kevin Love over Sean May any day. The guy actually cares enough about the game to get in shape enough to play.
And yeah...Anthony Randolph's potential could be off the charts. Like, say, Sean May! 200-lb. PFs don't make it in the league.
Posted by: Michael Procton | May 20, 2008 11:04:58 AM
I agree that Kevin Love is by far the best option in this draft, given the odds. He is not only an above average player, he is tough, great rebounder, great post moves and he has discipline. He is nowhere near Sean May, please don't even compare them.
Posted by: Rob C | May 20, 2008 12:00:23 PM
Okafor's ceiling isn't terrible - but it isn't high either. His ceiling is exactly what we are getting right now - a decent player with some skill, but will never be a go-to-guy or a dominant franchise player.
Posted by: mcap | May 20, 2008 1:17:01 PM
I'm intrigued by the trade option. Anyone have anything theories out there? LB wheels and deals whenever he lands some place so...anyone have any ideas?
btw, I think maybe the best thing to come out of the LB hire is no more racist jerks coming on here and saying Bob Johnson only hires black people...
Posted by: Bonnell = Procton | May 20, 2008 2:16:13 PM
Procton, you kill me sometimes. Randolph is being compared directly to guys like Chris Bosh and yet there is no way he can make it in the league. And yes, Okafor does not have a high ceiling as he is under-sized at center but can not guard any of the long athletic power forwards in the game. He has no offensive face up game and average post moves. With the number two pick in draft you would like a guy to be a perenial all-star, not a double double guy. Okafor is solid, but will never be a dominant player and will be lucky to make an all-star game.
Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 2:22:12 PM
And, according to espn.com, Chris Bosh is listed at 6-10 230 while Randolph is listed at 6-10 and a half 220. So, Bosh after 4 years of lifting and beefing up is only 10 pounds heavier than Randolph. Yes, you are correct, no way he can play in the NBA.
Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 2:27:10 PM
6-10 200some lbs.....hmmmm.....sounds like a similar build to KG coming out of high school, jermaine o'niel, chris bosh, etc...now I don't know that much about his game so I'm not going to say that he is the next KG but there is obviously precedent of tall, skinny, athletic players playing at all-star levels in the nba
Posted by: Cody Paul | May 20, 2008 2:47:06 PM
brandon wright was also compared to chris bosh
Posted by: d | May 20, 2008 3:11:52 PM
Just because there have been a few exceptional players who were tall and skinny it does not mean in any way that the teams should start investing in twigs and pray that they turn out like Kevin Garnet.
On the opposite side of things I can't think of any great NBA players who are over weight, are not athletic and undersized who make major contributions at all. That means you Kevin Love.
Posted by: Ryan | May 20, 2008 3:23:43 PM
I'm just saying, the kid is only 19 years old so he still is filling out his frame and will/should put on some weight. Also look at whi plays PF in the Eastern Conference. You have Bosh, KG, Josh Smith for Atlanta, Rashard Lewis for Lando (albeit it he plays out of position), Antwan for the Wiz, Marion for the Heat (as of now unless he opts out), Rasheed or Antonio McD for the Pistons etc... The PF position in the NBA has transformed into a position where guys need to be long and athletic with the ability to guard the perimeter. The Bobcats do not have this player on our team.
Also, Wright was only a rookie last season and showed some progress in the second half with his teamates loving his long-term potential.
Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 3:38:10 PM
They may love his long term potential, but I'm glad we traded him. J Rich is a better player than Brandon Wright will ever be.
Posted by: Eric | May 20, 2008 4:24:34 PM
Maybe we can draft a new owner with our pick.
Posted by: Stinger | May 20, 2008 7:53:57 PM
Mason, thank you for showing that you actually pay attention to the NBA outside of the Bobcats vacuum. This team needs a PF with versatility immensely.
Posted by: jperry | May 20, 2008 11:28:40 PM
Yes...and Anthony Randolph can...hide behind a pole by turning sideways? I guess that's really versatile.
Posted by: Michael Procton | May 21, 2008 1:20:58 AM
Never said Randolph was my top choice or even in my top 5 choices. Just saying that we have bulk at the PF position that does not fit the mode of today's NBA PF. We need skill and quickness. A guy can be skinny if he shows the ability to get stronger, has good and quick feet and is offensively skilled facing the basket in particular.
Posted by: jperry | May 21, 2008 9:42:23 AM
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