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June 23, 2008

Lack of workout here is non-issue for Bobcats

Bayless_blogIf you're waiting around for a herd of lottery picks to work out for the Bobcats this week, you're out of luck.

Unless something of consequence changes quickly, the Bobcats won't be auditioning any more viable candidates for the ninth pick. No Jerryd Bayless, no Brook Lopez, no Eric Gordon, no D.J. Augustin.

The Bobcats don't appear particularly surprised or rattled that guys who could be available at No. 9 haven't made themselves available here. They say they wouldn't avoid drafting someone, simply because that player didn't travel to Charlotte for a workout and a job interview. It's not a Bobcats issue, it's an NBA-wide issue and it's an agent-driven issue.

I will write more about this in Tuesday's Observer, but know this: Some agent out there, perhaps more than one, will have outsmarted himself Thursday night when his client is waiting longer than he should have to be selected.

I certainly understand why a Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley doesn't waste his time auditioning for teams with, say, the fifth pick. But there are agents out there overplaying their hands, and it happens every draft.

Posted by rbonnell on June 23, 2008 at 12:52 PM | Permalink


call new jeresy back about if they still want sean may. jersey has a late first(21)to play with and still their own mid first so they would keep the higher pick and get a good player(deandre jordan?). trade may for the late pick and draft mareese speights from florida(6'10 250) as a bench power player for boards and defense with some scoring touch. then move emeka okefor, matt carrol, and the 9 pick to clippers for elton brand, shaun livingston and the 7 pick (anthony randolph). sign beno udrich(in case livingston is not ready yet) as UFA this summer

bobcats then have

PG felton/livingston/udrich
SG richardson/morrison
SF wallace/dudley
PF brand/randolph
C mohammad/speights

*(plus davidson and 2nd rd pick richard hendrix in the bench)

the team rids itself of unwanted contracts(carrol) unwanted players (may) and makes the front court viable with inside outside combo of mohammad/brand

the draft for us would be ripe with a potential future C in mareese speights and could also show a budding star down the road in anthony randolph if wallace's injuries dont go well.

height is added in the backcourt in livingston at 6'7 (can be had for low price with injury situation in LA) and the height would be sick for the future (randolph 6'10 as SF, brand 6'8 as PF, and speight 6'10 as C)

Posted by: brendan | Jun 23, 2008 2:21:20 PM


Posted by: Kevin | Jun 23, 2008 2:26:19 PM

Not sure if anyone saw John Hollinger's article on espn.com but he rates out all of the prospects on a similar rating scale that he uses for PERs for NBA players. Also takes in account some other variables such as age and tries to predict how well a player will do in the pros. He also went back 6 years on his data. His data is pretty accurate and with only a few oddities. For all of the Felton haters out there, he actually rated higher than Deron Williams, a little below Paul, and all 3 were rated higher than any other PGs but Wade int he last 6 years and are rated much higher than Westbrook, DJ and even Rose for this years draft. Also, Randolph rates absolutely horribly, as in doesn't deserve a first round selection and barely deserves a second round which I found interesting.

Posted by: Mason | Jun 23, 2008 2:41:03 PM

I read that article Mason. He does make an interesting case against Randolph though his stats are too incomplete to have me convinced. He gives us a typical profile of how players have performed over the past few years based on their PER's for college and basicly the higher the PER the better performance in the pros, but he does leave a lot of variables unaccounted for. He leaves out any success stories of players w/ low PER's in college outperforming that in the pros(which I believe has to be true for some players.) Maybe if he could give us the typical profile of draft busts as well and find a way to compare Randolph to those players then I'd be convinced, but stats can always be misleading. I think Hollinger admitted as much by saying he'll either look like a genius or an idiot depending on how Randolph ends up performing. He does raise some serious questions to Randolph being taken at number 9 however.

For the very reason I wouldn't expect another team to trade for Morrison, I wouldn't trade for Livingston right now. I would especially not want both of them on the same roster.

Posted by: Jared | Jun 23, 2008 3:03:54 PM

Package the 9 pick with Morrison or Dudley to Minny, draft Mayo at 3. Trade Gerald Wallace for Josh Howard straight up, or throw in Dudley or Morrison. Trade a future number one and get another pick in the late teens, take Hibbert. In other words, convert Dudley, Morrison and Wallace and two number ones into Mayo, Hibbert and Howard. Resign Hermann. Release May. Then the Bobcats can roll out Felton, Howard, Richardson, Okafor, Mohammad, and back them up with Mayo, Hibbert, Carroll, Hermann, Davidson, Hollins, Boykins.

It's not that crazy. The Minny trade has been rumored all week, and there's a lot to be said for both clubs in the Wallace for Howard exchange.

Posted by: ArlingtonDeac | Jun 23, 2008 3:07:49 PM

Two things, ArlingtonDeac:

The Wallace for Howard deal is absolutely stupid. What Howard beats him in rebounding by one per game, Wallace is a better passer, more efficient post finisher on offense, runs the court better, gets near 3 times as many steals per game than Howard does, is a better shot blocker, is only 25 years old compared to Howards' 28, and if it weren't for terrible coaching by Vincent, Wallace's FG percentage would be better. They have the exact same salary figure, so I don't see how the Bobcats would be getting better in any regard with that trade. The Mavs can't get rid of Josh Howard because nobody wants him for near equal value. From watching the games over the past few years, Howard is clearly the benefactor of playing alongside Dirk, Stack, Terry, Dampier, Harris, and now Kidd.

Regardless of May and his injury problems, the Bobcats shouldn't just flat out release a former lottery pick. And replace him with Herrmann? I don't think so. May is relatively inexpensive and when he did play, he was a good enough back up. If you could trade him for a mid to late pick in the draft, I'd be all for it. But to cut him, I don't see any benefit.

Posted by: Nick | Jun 23, 2008 3:31:36 PM

Releasing Sean May would be addition by subtraction. We could have had the nets 17th pick last year for May straight up. Seems like we could have had Monta Ellis for him too at some point but I don't remember the details. Maybe he has some trade value left but I'd be surprised.....

The guy was the best player in college basketball for about 3 months of his life and has now made a living out of those 3 months. His pro career is average when he plays and he NEVER plays. Let's get leaner, cut the fatback out of the equation.

Posted by: Richard | Jun 23, 2008 3:47:54 PM

Nick, IMO Howard is a better fit next to Richardson and for playing the schemes that Larry Brown will employ. He's a better team defender, and has better shooting, passing and rebounding numbers. While Wallace does accumulate steals, he also get burned quite a bit, and that's not going to fly under Brown. Wallace's is basically a 3 like Richardson, while Howard is more of a 2. And Crash is a huge, huge injury risk. I think Howard's value is remarkable low considering he was basically a 20 point scorer last year as a second option, and was the team's best defender. He had a horrible month in May all facets, but this guy is a borderline all-star that may be available at a huge discount. I like Wallace as a player, but Howard is better.

May is not an answer and the money can be better spent elsewhere. He's a restricted free agent next year. Best to just let him go. Hermann was great a shooting 4. He was over 50% from three and 20 a game to close out the season before last. Vincent ruined him. We should be able to get him back for nothing.

Posted by: ArlingtonDeac | Jun 23, 2008 4:17:09 PM

"The money could be spent better elsewhere?" No. Sadly, MJ, RobertCat, and the other cronies GUARANTEED him his money (a year early, too,) so he'll get paid (and we'll pay) precisely the same amount regardless of whether he's on the roster or not. It could certainly be argued that the roster spot is worth cutting him, but we'll unfortunately save no money by doing so.

Posted by: Michael Procton | Jun 23, 2008 4:59:58 PM

Well, ArlingtonDeac...

A great coach adjusts his coaching to the players he has. So if Larry Brown isn't willing to do that, than he's a bad pick up.

I do agree with some of the points you make, but just to compare stats: last year Wallace got 3.5 APG compared to Howards' 2.2 and Wallace began to prove himself as a good passer to a cutting JRich or a kickout to a wideopen JRich, something I never see Howard doing for the Mavs. Wallace gets 2.1 SPG and a .9 blocks to Howards' .78 and .4 and I personally feel Howard is a little weak on defense. Career shooting wise Wallace shoots .477 and Howard .459. With a smarter coach Wallace will shoot even better. And with the three year age difference Wallace hasn't entered his prime yet while Howard is in his. I think with defensive numbers, overall aggressiveness, and potential, we'd be better off keeping Wallace and not forcing JRich to have to man down the 3 spot.

Howard has the body of a 2 gaurd but plays like a SF and I personally feel that JRich is a 2 no matter what. Defensively JRich is almost nothing and Felton doesn't play D against a slow moving offense so Gerald is always forced to take the perimeter and fast break defense on his shoulders.

I agree May is a loafy player and isn't the answer and would like the Bobcats to get rid of him, but I don't think they should cut him and pay him to not even play for the team. And I like Herrmann but think the Bobcats need a post presence more so than a foreign style big man. Any post presence in the East is huge (another reason I prefer Wallace, who can play the 4 if needed, over Howard).

Posted by: Nick | Jun 23, 2008 5:13:55 PM

May will be on the team this year, if he does not perform or stay on the court/bench, this will obviously be his last year w/ the Bobcats. However, the 12th man on the roster does not contribute very much so even if he does nothing, it won't hurt us too bad. The upside that he gets into shape this summer, with a heeled knee, and can contribute 10 plus points and 7 plus boards a game is worth keeping him on the roster.

Also, the Hollinger article was a two piece as he did the bigs last week. In that article he mentions all of the players currently on a NBA roster that contribute anything of signifance with a lower rating than I think 11. There are not very many, which is why the Randolph thing is so crazy. However, he did play w/ nobody at LSU in a somewhat tough conference and was only a freshmen.

I was surprised by how low Westbrook and Augustine ranked compared to Felton, Paul and Williams. I knew Rose would rank a little lower due to his slow start as a freshmen, and well being a freshmen, but still I was surprised.

Posted by: Mason | Jun 23, 2008 5:15:24 PM

Hey Arlington Deac,

Great idea on those trades, and free agent deals! now why don't you snap your fingers and make it happen?

I'm not going to argue about who's better, Wallace or Howard, but you don't even have your positions down man. Wallace is a 3(not like Richardson) who sometimes played the 4(even though he shouldn't have). Richardson would often slide to the 3 when Wallace played the 4 but not because he's a natural 3. They were playing a small lineup and were often outplayed when doing so. It's true that defense isn't all about steals and blocks, and I wouldn't even mind seeing Wallace leave in the right deal, but Howard for Wallace seems like a lateral move with neither team getting better.

As far as Herrmann, I like what I've seen, but he's really unproven. He only excelled in games that didn't really matter at the end of the season. I can't argue w/ the idea that we should get rid of May because of his injuries, but when healthy he provides good interior scoring and rebounding and could really help this team.

As far as trading up to get Mayo, I don't see why we need him. Westbrook played great on defense against Mayo and wouldn't be a liability on the offensive end. I'd rather keep Dudley(I won't even entertain the thought that a team is giving up the 3rd pick for Ammo) and draft Westbrook.

I'll be eating my words if the Morrison trade really does happen, but you have to wonder what the schmucks in Minni are thinking if they make that trade.

Posted by: Jared | Jun 23, 2008 5:31:02 PM

Thanks for bringing that Hollinger point to my attention Mason. That does make the article more convincing numbers more convincing.

Posted by: Jared | Jun 23, 2008 5:38:46 PM

Is there seriously an educated and civilized debate using actual data and facts on this board? Bravo guys! I'm very impressed and happy, please go to bobcatsplanet.com and share the wealth..

Posted by: Daniel | Jun 23, 2008 7:17:49 PM

the article in the section below this blog mentions trade possibilities and brings up a good point. i mentioned the fact that the nets have two first rounders above. so do the sonics and grizzel. the impact with the first round looks to be the same in the mid to late round. if the nets dont want to move their late first, the bobcats could contact seattle or memphis and get one of their lates to go after the likes of roy hibbert, mario chalmers, mareese speights, robin lopez, or courtney lee. filling the needs at PF and PG. in the process they could still move a sean may or a matt carrol, and get a vet too(seattle's luke ridenour?earl watson?)(memphi's jarvarius crittenton?kyle lowry?)


bobcats get pick 24(roy hibbert), nick collison, and luke ridenour

seattle gets pick 9(brook lopez), adam
morrison, and sean may


bobcats get pick 28(jj hickson)and kyle lowery
*charlotte still picks 9(anthony randolph)

memphis gets sean may and matt carrol

Posted by: brendan | Jun 23, 2008 7:47:42 PM

I'm not trying to be rude but that has to be one of the dumbest trades I've ever heard proposed(the seattle trade). You obviously consider May and Morrison to have no trade value because we get next to nothing back in Ridenour. Collison is only better than May in that he's not coming off major knee problems. So we're left with swapping a lottery pick for the 24th pick. I'd rather take my chances on May and Morrison for one more season and keep the 9th pick. The idea is that the Bobcats trade to get a SECOND pick in the draft, not trade down without picking up anything in return.

Why are you so keen on dumping off May and Morrison this year Brendan? If May gets healthy this year then he'll be really good for the team because he'll provide some inside scoring and rebounding. If not, then he'll be gone, but right now his trade value is pretty low. It's smarter to keep him around and see if he can actually give us something. The same goes for Morrison. They both have potential to be key contributors off the bench. Because of injury issues, neither are going to be attractive to other teams. You're wanting the Bobcats to buy high and sale low.

Posted by: Jared | Jun 23, 2008 11:06:31 PM

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