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July 27, 2008
Some 'comps' for Okafor?
There’s a concept in real estate called, “comps,’’ as in you can’t appraise something’s value without at least two examples of what comparable properties were worth.
I would argue that Milwaukee’s Andrew Bogut and Golden State’s Andris Biedrins are big men of comparable value to Emeka Okafor. And with both of them signed, they represent comps.
Please, no overstated statistical analyses (yes, I’m talking to you, Michael Procton). I’m not ranking these three versus each other. I’m simply saying that with different skill sets and teammates, they are roughly comparable players at roughly the same position.
So consider:
Biedrins has reportedly agreed to a 6-year contract, worth approximately $63 million, with a player opt-out after five seasons. So that’s a $10.5 million average, but with the significant advantage of a player opt-out.
Bogut reportedly was guaranteed $60 million over five years (a $12 million average) plus incentives that could push total compensation up to $72 million. (Those incentives, such as the Bucks winning the NBA championship, sound pretty challenging.)
Okafor was once offered over $12 million a season. Now, according to a source I consider credible, the Bobcats offer is much closer to a $10 million-a-season average.
Bottom line: If the Bobcats were in danger of over-paying Okafor at over $12 million a season, they’re low-balling him now if they’re offering $10 million a season.
Posted by Observer Sports on July 27, 2008 at 08:59 PM | Permalink
Comments
He should not resign and move to a real team. A team with a owner who lives in the same town as the team. A team that has a front office that knows something about basketball. MJ has failed at every team he has tried to be an executive at. His airness is not working in the queen city.
Bob Johnson only knows how to ask for public assistance, and then whine for more. This organization is not even thought of as a pro organization in the league.
Okafor should think of these things before he makes a committment to this team. The owner and assistant owner hasn't made any committment.
Posted by: nba/is/so/over | Jul 27, 2008 9:58:08 PM
Very good comparison and analysis. Both are players reasonably similar. One could make the case that Okafor's production is better, and his upside (somewhat limited beyond current levels) is similar to both of these players.
I hope the front office will make a better offer, close if not slightly better than these deals, and get on with obtaining a starting-level PF with our MLE. We need that player badly and it's NOT May, or Davidson, and it's CLEARLY not Ajinca for another couple of seasons.
Posted by: Mark | Jul 27, 2008 10:42:00 PM
A couple of other good 'comps' based on last year's production are Chris Kaman, Tyson Chandler and Samuel Dalembert. Adding those to the Biedrins / Bogut analysis, here's a look at the average yearly salary the players are getting on their current contracts:
Biedrins - $10.5MM
Kaman - $10.85MM
Dalembert - $11.36MM
Chandler - $11.85MM
Bogut - $12.1MM
Production wise, I think Okafor rates pretty well against Chandler and Bogut and slightly above the other 3.
Personally, I would think the Bobcats first offer was pretty reasonable for both sides. I'd be curious to see what type of contract Okafor is looking to get because you have a couple of 20 & 10 guys in Carlos Boozer and Al Jefferson making $12.1MM and $13MM per season respectively, so getting much north of $12MM per year is a pretty tough sell.
Posted by: vtdalvis | Jul 27, 2008 11:41:39 PM
Bonnell thanks for the info. Maybe a deal can get worked out now?
One thing is for sure, Procton is going to love that you acknowledged him.
Posted by: Yeah? | Jul 28, 2008 3:37:00 AM
Yep, Rick just fed Procton's little ego.
Bobs are idiots for offering $2M less than they did last year. That's a slap in the face. Next thing you know MJ will hit on Emeka's girlfriend.
Posted by: LeeL | Jul 28, 2008 8:18:40 AM
12 million a year is cool. I don't think the Bobcats should pay more than that.
Posted by: Token | Jul 28, 2008 8:19:13 AM
The bobcats pissed off Okafor with the $10MM offer this season, however most GMs around the league last year felt that the $12MM offer was a bit high. The bobcats, sensing that no teams had real cap space or the desire to try and sign Okafor away, tried to lowball him somewhat. I still think its in both sides best interest to come to an agreement. Bobcats should offer him 5 years at $60MM with possibly some incentives similar to Bogut.
Posted by: Mason | Jul 28, 2008 8:43:10 AM
Sign him to a 6Yrs. deal worth $12-12.5 per year and an opt-out option for the last year. Also include some incentives like (ie):
Make the Playoffs ($250K+)
Win the Division ($500K+)
Win the Conference??? ($1M+)
Rebound leader ($250K+)
Block leader ($250K+)
Most double-double in a season ($350K+)
Avg. Career high 16+ppg and 12+ rpg ($500K+)
Make the All star team ($500K+)
Player of the Week/Month ($100K+/$250K+)
All these examples of achievements are good for incentives and would benefit both the Bobcats and Okafor.
Posted by: RobC | Jul 28, 2008 9:34:19 AM
Rick, does your source know what's happening at the moment? Is Mek gonna hold out? Are the Cats just being stubborn?
Posted by: apauldds | Jul 28, 2008 9:50:58 AM
I don't think the cats first offer was too low at all, Mek could have had 12 mil a year yet chose to "prove his worth" last season. He proved it alright...to me he is worth no more than 11.5 MAX. He is not nearly as skilled in the post as Bogut, and not nearly as explosive as Chandler. He is a solid defender and rebounder who will get you 10-15 points a night and 5 to 10 rebounds...
Like VTdalvis said, 12 mil is Boozer Al jefferson territory and Mek is definitely not EVER going to give the bobcags 20 & 10 a night consistently
Posted by: ArtVandelay | Jul 28, 2008 9:59:49 AM
No statistical regression needed. The three are roughly comparable players. Both are better and more versatile offensive threats (though I think Emeka could be more of a threat if featured in an offense), but Emeka is in a different class as a defender, and he's a superior rebounder to either of them. Both of them ARE younger and more inexperienced, so the case could be made that they've got more upside, but unlike some, I think Okafor has shown improvement since he came into the league, too.
The note about $12 mil being "Boozer territory" is an interesting one. When Boozer got that contract, he was coming off...a 15-11-1 season, hitting .523 on his field goals. Emeka is coming off of 14-11-2, hitting .535 as a lesser cog in his team's offense. Seems pretty similar, huh? Al Jefferson, too, was not as accomplished for his career as Emeka currently is when he was signed to his extension in Minnesota. He was off to a good start to the season, but Emeka still surpasses his career numbers of 13-8-1. So it's a question of upside, I guess, and whether we're willing to express the kind of basketball commitment to that guy (getting him real help in the post, getting him shots) that that kind of financial commitment would merit.
Oh, and PS: thanks, Rick, but that blog mention stuff is old hat. They referenced me on the Panthers side MONTHS ago. ;)
Posted by: Michael Procton | Jul 28, 2008 10:27:30 AM
The only problems with Emeka is that he's shown that he's a solid player but nowhere near the star that he was forecasted to be! And had every bit of confidence that he'd be a star defensive player; he's not thus far. I believed that he would learn some post moves and be a 20 point scorer in the league; nopes, not even close..
So while his career averages are solid, where's the high upside potential (to steal a line from Hubie Brown). The problem is, he's got nowhere near the offensive potential of Al Jefferson and he's nowhere near the beast that Dwight Howard is. What in the world happened to Emeka Okafor? One of my favorite college players is solid but utterly unspectacular. Where is his all-world defense? I say give him $11 mil a year and hope that Larry Brown improves the team's defense and teaches Emeka how to beast it on defense (which he's certainly capable of doing).
Posted by: Binh Ho | Jul 28, 2008 11:23:28 AM
This dude hasn't helped the Bobcats win jack, he wasn't worth the $60 million investment, so I'm not sure how fans can support him being a $72 million investment.
The Bobcats offer of $10 million per is the same money as it was last year, it would just take him an extra year to earn it.
I personally don't value hollow numbers, and we can talk about his solid numbers all day, but 0 playoff appearances in the East, you can't give huge contracts to guys who clearly don't help you make the playoffs in a rather weak conference.
Posted by: Justin | Jul 28, 2008 11:51:39 AM
Really? You're going to blame Okafor for not taking this EXPANSION team, which has actually spent money to win in ONE of its four seasons for not winning? Please.
Posted by: Michael Procton | Jul 28, 2008 12:00:45 PM
The time to sign oke is now. The only thing last year proved was that a bad coach can create a loss of purpose. Oke is a player, but he can't do it on his own. Last years team was not a team, but a group of players that knew more that the coach, so the team was pulled five ways at one time. This years team will have a real coach who will not put up with players trying to coach. Oke will thrive in this. He will not vanish on offence this year, Brown want let it happen. The numbers oke will put up next year will make a 12mil contract look cheap. Larry Brown teams play in your face defence. If you don't give the effort, you are on the bench. Oke is one piece of this pie. Bobcats management needs to also understand that if Brown doesn't get his pie, there is always a job for him in Philly. Just ask the Knicks.
Posted by: fred flinstone | Jul 28, 2008 12:03:58 PM
I like how procton is too slow to realize that even Bonnell tires of his inane and contextually absent statistical diatribes.
to the point, I think Bonnell's column shows clearly that the bcats have sized up the market and are trying to start at a better barginning place. Although, it could be argued that they may have offered an insultinly low price such that he'd take a lesser offer from another team to leave.
Agreed though that an $11 mill or so contract with incentives should be a very fair contract for Ok.
Posted by: bonnell=procton | Jul 28, 2008 1:05:04 PM
I prefer my "inane" facts over irrelevant hyperbole about how awesome Raymond Felton and Sean May were in college once upon a time.
Posted by: Michael Procton | Jul 28, 2008 1:07:54 PM
Oh...and you were apparently "too slow" to note that I did no statistical comparisons between the three players mentioned whatsoever.
Posted by: Michael Procton | Jul 28, 2008 1:08:27 PM
Procton, Bonnell was referring to your past posts, as was I.
I've only ever brought up college success to disprove any notion that felton is a combo guard. I stand by that.
Back the team, we obviously need post depth and have little money or options. Whether or not anything happens with okafor, what if we went out on a limb and picked up Kwame Brown.
Stay with me here...hopefully we resign okafor and brown is only ever a backup. So think about the fact that the bcats would be picking up a back up PF/C that's only 26 but is 6-11 270 with all the intangibles in the world.
I know he hasn't amounted to anything as a number 1 pick, but wouldn't you be willing to pick him up for say $5mill a season? Aren't you a better team with Kwame as a back up than Hollins?
Posted by: bonnell=procton | Jul 28, 2008 1:20:05 PM
B=P, do you think Michael Jordan will want his name to be tied in any way with Kwame Brown ever again?! I don't think so; as an executive for the Bobcats, MJ has already added plenty of stains to his repute, and he won't let Kwame, of all players, be another one... More to the point, not much came out of Kwame's much touted potential. Besides his small hands' issue, his main problem is a lack of desire, of motivational spark. I saw more desire to be successful in each one of Ryan Hollins's games than in all of Kwame's performances put together (and, believe me, I used to watch Kwame a lot, I used to hope that something really good will come out of his potential).
Posted by: Sandy | Jul 28, 2008 4:32:42 PM
Leave it to Procton to bring up Felts and May in a discussion about Mek.
Posted by: apauldds | Jul 28, 2008 4:42:55 PM
Okafor does need to stay on this team in order for them to be successful. I do like the idea of bringing in Kwame Brown if you can get him for what he is worth and that is maybe 1.25-2mil a year for 2 years. I am still hoping that maybe no other team goes after Zo and we can bring him in as well, to help bring a lot our post players and maybe just maybe get him into the coaching ranks. I still think for this team paying the money we did for Wallace and Carroll is going to hurt us. Maybe this year they prove their worth. Chemistry could have been a problem, and I think Carroll is better with more consistent mins which he only received in spurts last year. Lets see what happens but I like Kwame Brown being here, heck I think he could be the start center for us, helping move Okafor to the Power Forward postion. Yet, I doubt Brown wants to be around Jordan again.
Posted by: knewton | Jul 28, 2008 4:50:38 PM
procton has a vendetta against anything UNC after his 1 glorious year there.
Posted by: JD | Jul 28, 2008 9:05:40 PM
Kwame just inked a 2yr 8MM deal with Detroit.
Generally I'd say these things usually work themselves out, pride gets a back seat to business sense and the bobcats are in the best position to get a deal done w Mek, who has limited options.
But he did turn down a very fair contract offer last year so he's shown the business sense can take a back seat to pride. The low offer may cost them big time here.
Posted by: john | Jul 28, 2008 11:30:13 PM
Please, no overstated statistical analyses (yes, I’m talking to you, Michael Procton)
that has got to be the greatest and most true line in the history of charlotte.com blogs.
Posted by: matt | Jul 29, 2008 8:16:33 AM
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