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July 09, 2008
Okafor's value going up after Bogut deal?
If Andrew Bogut is worth $14.5 million to the Milwaukee Bucks, then what’s Emeka Okafor’s value to the Charlotte Bobcats?
When the Bobcats offered Okafor more than $12 million a season last summer (plus an additional $5 million in potential incentives), I thought they were in more danger of overpaying than losing their best big man.
Okafor politely turned down the offer, choosing instead to become a restricted free agent this month. Then, Wednesday, various news outlets reported Bogut – the Bucks’ center and the top pick in the 2005 draft – will sign a five-year, $72.5 million extension before ever reaching free agency.
You can argue whether Bogut or Okafor (the second overall pick in 2004) is the better player. Bogut is more skilled offensively, Okafor the better defender.
This much is clear: They’re roughly comparable as young NBA big men go. Okafor would be hard for the Bobcats to replace in just the way losing Bogut would be a blow to the Bucks.
Bogut’s new contract, combined with the Los Angeles Clippers’ need to replace Elton Brand, figures to complicate the Bobcats’ position (although the Clippers might have Atlanta Hawks forward Josh Smith atop their free-agent wish list).
Turning down that offer last summer was a risk, but perhaps a lucrative one for the Bobcats’ first-ever draft pick.
Posted by rbonnell on July 9, 2008 at 08:09 PM | Permalink
Comments
If the Bobcats have to pay more than the $12M they offered last year they need to let him go. The bottom line is that Okafor is a role player. A good one but still a role player. He isn't going to get much better, if at all, and the Bobcats should not save that money for a true center isntead of a tweener with no offense.
Posted by: Colby | Jul 9, 2008 9:04:01 PM
Okafor is a better player than Bogut. He produces more with better talent around him, and he's worlds ahead in defense. Bogut has always been a good comparison, at least in terms of value, as a young big man who's one of the best centers in the NBA.
Colby, role players don't average career double doubles. They don't get votes for DPoY in their third year in the league. You're wrong. And your "no offense" line is bullshit. He's led the team in shooting by a mile in each of the last two seasons.
Posted by: Michael Procton | Jul 9, 2008 9:19:55 PM
I'd hate to see him go but if he can get 14.5M I say let him go. If he commands that kind of money the best case is probably a sign and trade picking up a decent 4 and maybe an expiring contract.
Posted by: Jared | Jul 9, 2008 9:22:48 PM
I agree with Procton, Okafor isn't a role player... Colby you're just wrong
This Bogut deal does worry me though. I hope the Clippers get Josh Smith from Atl and that will help to ease the situation since no one on the market would be able to then drive up Okafor's price or sign him away from us.
Posted by: Yeah? | Jul 9, 2008 9:31:09 PM
It's being reported as 5 years/60 million guaranteed with 12.5 million in incentives. That's basically what Mek turned down last year (5/60 with approx 5 million in incentives).
I think odds are Mek remains a Bobcat.
Posted by: spectre | Jul 9, 2008 9:52:39 PM
I'm a Bobcats fan living in KY and haven't been able to see every game. I'd like to see them keep Okafor, but only at a reasonable price.
I don't know the answer to this so maybe someone can answer it: How many games has Okafor taken over in his career? I don't remember any, and I don't know that you pay that much for a guy who doesn't take over games. Am I off base?
Posted by: Matt Privett | Jul 9, 2008 9:55:44 PM
have to bring up the "irrelevent" topic again here. espn reported on both the bogut extension and the clippers replacement for brand, okafor going anywhere or signing for way too much was NOT mentioned. the bobcats are not thought of nationally. at this time its important, because then market value will somehow will apply instead of some published overpricing. somehow the bobcats will sign okafor to an extension for some price near (over or under) what was offered last season.
Posted by: brendan | Jul 9, 2008 10:19:45 PM
Matt, I can't recall Okafor ever taking over any games. He can have good games where he scores 20+ but that's usually against teams with weaker defenses. He's not consistent and can't create his own shots the way and upper echelon big should be able to.
Despite all of that, he's the best FA still available capable of playing the 4/5 positions and would be hard to replace. I agree it has to be for reasonable money though.
Posted by: Jared | Jul 9, 2008 10:27:37 PM
Okafor should sign again with the bobcats but if he is asking for to much then let him go.
Posted by: michael davis | Jul 9, 2008 10:29:52 PM
You are off base, Matt. Very few centers take over games at all. Dwight Howard, Yao, and Amare are probably the only three who do. $10-15 mil is just what you're going to pay for a good center.
Here's my take on the top 10 centers in the NBA and their average annual salary of their current contract (or what they got paid last year if they're a free agent):
Dwight Howard-$15.76 mil
Amare Stoudemire-$16.4
Yao Ming-$16.4
Marcus Camby-$8.6 (major injury concerns kept his price down for his current contract)
Pau Gasol-$16.5
Emeka Okafor-?
Andrew Bogut-$12.1
Brad Miller-$11.85
Tyson Chandler-$11.9
Samuel Dalembert-$11.4
Andris Biedrins-$3.6 (still under rookie contract)
Here are some other notable players:
Shaq-$20.0 mil
Chris Kaman-$10.85
Mehmet Okur-$8.75
Zydrunas Ilgauskas-$11.15
Nick Collison-$6.4
Troy Murphy-$11.0
Brendan Haywood-$5.75
Posted by: Michael Procton | Jul 9, 2008 10:44:58 PM
I really believe he is going to sign a 1yr deal with bobcats and go unrestricted next year
and then LEAVE
Posted by: howfast | Jul 9, 2008 10:48:53 PM
As spectre pointed out, sounds like the guaranteed money is $12 million per year.
In doing a quick glance of big men that I think have the most comparable statistics to from last year to Okafor and are in the same age range appear to be Bogut, Tyson Chandler and Chris Kaman. Here's a snapshot of statistics along with their average yearly salary over the remaining years of their respective contracts:
Bogut - 14.5 pts/10 reb/1.75 blk/51% fg/17.55 PER, $12 million per year
Chandler - 12 pts/12 reb/1 blk/62%fg/17.56 PER, $11.85 million per year
Kaman - 15.5 pts/12.5 reb/2.5 blk/48% fg/17.62 PER, $10.85 million per year
Okafor - 14.5 pts/11.5 reb/1.75 blk/53% fg/17.46 PER
For further comparison, Al Jefferson is getting an average of $13 million a year and his stats last year were 21 pts/11 reb/1.5 blk/50% fg/22.80 PER.
All things considered, $12 million a year seems pretty reasonable. If you start getting into the $13 million per year or higher range that's when you probably have to evaluate the level of investment against production.
Posted by: vtdalvis | Jul 9, 2008 10:52:22 PM
Matt, you're not off base. 14.5 million is too much for a center who's not going to consistently dominate.
Posted by: Jared | Jul 9, 2008 10:55:09 PM
As a lifelong NBA fan, I'm not surprised. Welcome to professional sports. I HATE seeing teams cheap out with their best players and rotating starters in every season. Unfortunately, small market teams have to do that to make any kind of profit. But nothing makes a profit more than success (merchandise, tickets) and nothing makes a team more successful than stability and an open checkbook. So, pay Okafor what the market determines he is worth.
Posted by: Bro D. | Jul 9, 2008 11:57:35 PM
Not to split hairs, but Okafor averaged 13.8ppg and 10.7rpg last season. I would absolutely pay Okafor in the 12 mil range but I wouldn't go much higher than that.
Posted by: james | Jul 10, 2008 1:18:24 AM
Without looking it up, Okafor has taken over a few games. He has always stepped up against the Lakers... he had 22pts and 25rebs I believe in LA his rookie year. He also just missed a triple double (pts,rebs,blks) in NY when he came up a rebound short.
To be honest, I think he could take over more if he just got the frickin ball... Vincent preached getting him the ball, but his coaching during games didn't back it up.
Posted by: Yeah? | Jul 10, 2008 1:19:47 AM
The thing is that LA hasn't had a decent defender in the post since Shaq left and we all know that Curry/Z-BO don't play D. I agree he can have big games offensively when you're playing a team that just doesn't play D. He should be paid fairly, I just don't want to see him over valued and The Bobs stuck with a load of bloated contracts.
Posted by: Jared | Jul 10, 2008 8:19:37 AM
Why do you guys always talk about leading their team in shooting as a means of saying a player has a solid offensive game? As I have already pointed out, the top two field goal percentage leaders in the NBA last season were Biedris for GSW and Chandler for NO, both of which were their team's 4th or 5th option. Big men should and almost always do lead their team in field goal percentage because they get easy baskets off dunks and putbacks. When Okafor starts stepping outside and hitting a 14 foot jumper on the pick and pop, or develops a solid "go-to" post move, then he will move into a higher category on offense and our team's offensive efficiency will improve greatly. Okafor is a hard worker and hopefully he has been hitting the gym this summer working on that shot.
Posted by: Mason | Jul 10, 2008 8:24:10 AM
Wow, Kaman is a bargain. I think bottom line is that no one ever wins by going cheap. You don't want to be foolish about it (see Knicks,NY) but you don't want to lose your franchise player (see Mourning, Alonzo.)
Posted by: apauldds | Jul 10, 2008 8:28:30 AM
so if the bobcats dont fork over 14 plus mill for okafor then is it comparable to the hornets not paying mourning and shipping him out for the best available return? could be. the hornets went on to somwe level of success without mourning and think the bobcats could do the same, as long as they get something in return. so i say we sign and trade while we still can. do NOT overpay this guy unless you move him to five and bring in another four.
Posted by: brendan | Jul 10, 2008 8:39:37 AM
I was thinking in the 12.5 range.
Posted by: apauldds | Jul 10, 2008 8:47:33 AM
The Clippers are going to give a big offer to Josh Smith, which Atlanta has said they will match. Atlanta has a very frugal history so that is no guarantee, but lets say they do. In this case, the Clippers could decide to go after Okafor, or could just wait it out a year and play w/ Powell and Thomas (I think?) at PF beside the ever improving Kaman. I honestly don't think they will go after Okafor but he would be a good fit at PF in the West where most of the PFs are bigger. No way the Clippers offer him more than 13-14 million a year, which I think the Bobcats would match since there are no other bigs available and we have absolutely no depth at the position. Maybe it would be overpaying by a million or two, since most of the league thought our offer of 12 was a bit high last year, but our team is hands down better w/ Okafor than without.
Posted by: Mason | Jul 10, 2008 8:58:31 AM
Mason you are right on the money this team is better with Okafor. By the way when you go to NBA.com and try looking up statistics you will not find Okafor in the top 150 in the league for Centers. However you won't find Duncan their either. You guys want to know why??? OKAFOR IS A POWER FORWARD!!!! Get over this with him being a Center. He is the true prototypical Power Forward. He does need work on his shot and foot speed but things like that can be worked on, if we can get someone in to help our post players. This will also increase the level of play of guys like Hollins and frency. I guarantee we would not be having this chat if with the 9th pick we selected Brook Lopez. I have a feeling Okafor would have signed here for the $12 million a year and we could put him in his natural position.
Posted by: KNewton | Jul 10, 2008 9:18:01 AM
So the scenarios are:
1. We sign Mek to an extension.
2. We match another team's offer.
3. Sign and trade, but for whom?
4. Sign Mek to a 1 year offer and he becomes UFA next year.
5. Let him go and pursue FA.
Most likely outcome?
Posted by: apauldds | Jul 10, 2008 9:24:16 AM
I wouldn't equate Okafor to Mourning. Mourning was an allstar second only to Shaq when he was in his prime. The Hornets should have never let him go.
I agree Mason, we shouldn't be breaking the bank for our center just because he shoots over 50% from the field. He shoots 50% from the foul line as well so that should tell you something about how he gets his buckets. He scores mostly on junk baskets and defensive lapses.
Posted by: Jared | Jul 10, 2008 9:26:34 AM
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