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April 16, 2008
Olson: Drafting Ryan would be 'huge mistake'
My buddy Charles Chandler wrote a story in today's Charlotte Observer about the Panthers' great and surprising interest in Boston College's Matt Ryan, the top-rated quarterback in the upcoming draft. By the time Charles and Carolina general manager Marty Hurney were done making their case, I almost wanted the team to trade up to get Ryan.
It would be a huge mistake.
First, the bottom line is simply that the Panthers don't NEED a quarterback. Starter Jake Delhomme's recovery from elbow surgery is coming along well from all accounts, and team officials have insisted
time and again that they are high on young backups Matt Moore and Brett Basanez.
If so, why take a quarterback when the team has so many glaring needs elsewhere?
I'm almost certain they won't. I believe the Panthers believe Ryan will not fall to their 13th overall pick, and rather than tip their hand concerning who they really expect to get, it's easy for
them to speak glowingly of Ryan.
Hurney wasn't being dishonest; it's obvious the team really does like Ryan. But every team likes a lot of players it either doesn't need to draft or will never get a chance to.
Carolina needs a pass-rushing defensive end or a people-moving offensive tackle or even a big running back. It doesn't need a quarterback. Hurney and coach John Fox know this as well as you or I, but anything they can do to throw other teams off the scent of their real plans isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Charles' story makes for interesting conversation, but Matt Ryan will be playing somewhere else next season.
--STAN OLSON
Posted by Observer Sports on April 16, 2008 at 10:50 AM | Permalink
Comments
Regarding the q.b situation i still believe the panthers are blowing sunshine concerning jakes status. jake has never had a great arm and this surgery is supposed to help him at 33 years old ?fox can spin anything.
basanez has shown me nothing.
thank goodness we stole moore from the cowboys. this guy is our future.
hopefully it wont take fox all season to realize that.
i will admit ,moore is green and ryan would
be a logical pick, but the panthers have too many other holes. instead of trading up they should trade down and try to get stewart and merling at #1 and 2. then get barry sims and grady jackson on the cheap for a year or 2.
Posted by: ray | Apr 16, 2008 11:07:18 AM
Granted the Panthers have needs at DE, OT and need to find another RB to team with DeAngelo, but if they have the opporunity to trade up and get Ryan, do it. This kid is going to be an All-Pro QB. Moore and Basanez will be nothing more than backups. It would probably cost them the 3rd and 5th round picks acquired from the Jets. Then draft a DE, RB rounds 2 and 3. OT can be selected on day 2.
Posted by: Al | Apr 16, 2008 12:14:27 PM
Actually Ray (and in this case, all other naysayers), for what its worth, Jake won the last quarterback challenge, and especially the long throw event where Jake threw for approximately 67 yards...that requires something more than just an average throwing arm..
Posted by: Daniel | Apr 16, 2008 12:19:39 PM
Well, it was the 2005 QB Challenge, but still, he beat out Big Ben, Drew Brees etc...
I say draft Ryan if he's present, and then trade for a higher first round pick and draft either Chris Williams or Johnathan Stewart..
Posted by: Daniel | Apr 16, 2008 12:22:02 PM
I like Ryan's points about acquiring Grady Jackson on the cheap, but I dont agree with trading down. We should stay where we are and get the best running back in in Rashard Mendenhall. He's the big back that we have been looking for. It bolds for a better two headed monster than the foster/williams show. The draft is deep in tackles, so we could get a decent one in the 2nd. We have 10 picks, lets make them work!!
Posted by: chuck | Apr 16, 2008 12:25:28 PM
"Hurney and coach John Fox know this as well as you or I." Nice grammar, Stan.
Posted by: Andy | Apr 16, 2008 12:29:43 PM
The best scenario would see us taking Chris Williams in Rd 1 (he will be the best OT in this draft besides Long). Out of 836 snaps last year, he allowed 1 sack and 1 QB hurry. Best of any OT in the draft, including Long. And this was against SEC DEs...some of whom are projected to be taken in the 1st and 2nd rounds.
Then grab big Trevor Laws in Rd 2 for some DT depth. He had an unheard of 103 tackles for a DT...and is as fast as a DE yet still weighs in above 300. Then they trade up from the Jets 3rd rounder into the back end of the 2nd (giving up their 6th rounder) to grab Ray Rice who has 1st round talent and would be a great complement to DeAngelo. Then with pick #74 you take the best available player amongst the need positions of DE/S/C.
Posted by: Pete | Apr 16, 2008 12:30:05 PM
Ray, if you followed baseball at all, you'd know that most pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery not only come back, but come back throwing harder than they did before they were initially hurt. Further, a baseball player will throw a pitch (which is a FAR more violent motion than a football pass) 100+ times up to 35 times over the course of a season. If we play like we want to, Jake will only have to throw 20-25 passes 19 times over the course of the season. And I'm glad Basanez hasn't impressed you...he's only 13th in total offense in NCAA HISTORY. Moore had to transfer because he couldn't beat out Drew Olsen, who couldn't even stick on our PRACTICE SQUAD.
As for Ryan, we're stupid if we get him...why would we pay a guy MILLIONS of dollars to hold a clipboard when we're: a. stocked at QB, b. have tons of needs, and c. are very close to being in the playoffs (3 games out the last two years combined despite missing Jake for 16 games.)
And Pete...do you think nobody pressured or sacked Vandy's QB because, uh, they knew he was terrible? Their leading passer threw 9 TDs! What's so special about "tremendous blocking" if your offense doesn't do anything with it?
Posted by: Michael Procton | Apr 16, 2008 12:40:59 PM
Interesting. How much of an improvement would Ryan be over Delhomme? There's a lot to consider in that comparison. Jake likely won't be playing a lot longer so you have to have an eye toward the future and ask "When will there be another Matt Ryan" (and will we have a 'chance' at him)?
The offensive line is an obvious need. I don't think that it has to be addressed in the 1st round, however. The draft appears to be deep at the T position.
RB is an interesting position. We have a potential star (can't really say that for the QB spot) and now need a utility guy. Toefield could be an answer for this spot! He hasn't had many opportunities in the league so he should be hungry. I could see him being the sleeper acquisition for the Panthers during the offseason.
I would put DE and S/CB high on the list. I think that Beason could have more of an impact in the role of defensive leader, and will (HOPEFULLY) bring more emotion to that side of the ball. If Gholston could be lined up opposite Pep that would be a tough assignment for any opposing OL. Don't think he'll slip - or we can trade up - to get him tho. The defensive backfield can also be addressed with the later picks.
Bottom line for the first round is value. You're going to be paying a premium for this player, so you should consider your needs, but with a very wary eye on the long term value. Ryan has a lot of value at 13 (or at 7 should that scenario come to fruition). Will an OT? Another first round RB (not too successful a history in these parts!)?
Get Ryan and build around him and DeAngelo and Steve. That's got a lot of potential to be a potent offense in the NFCSouth.
Posted by: A good QB is hard to find! | Apr 16, 2008 12:43:46 PM
I agree with Stan that selecting Matt Ryan is not the best move. Our backup QB's are free agents. It is my understanding that the following positions are premium: QB, OL, DL, and CB. Chad Henne (pocket passer) is a possibility. Hurney/Fox drafted second day QBs in 2002 (Fasani) and 2005 (LeFors) with backup Weinke. Let's not get into the same position as last year. Maybe it's time to consider upgrading our QB for the future.
Posted by: Terry | Apr 16, 2008 12:50:51 PM
Procton - you're right on with the Tommy Johns comments. Great point - Jake may be able to throw the deep ball further when he's back on the field. With Hackett added to the mix that could spell TD for SS...
However, I don't think that the strength of Jake's arm has ever been a problem. When I've seen him play I'm really surprised at his lack of accuracy. Those 'ol 8-10 yd outs and crossing patterns seem to inevitably float high or just simply miss the target. His consistency is a problem. (Of course, his WR corps hasn't been the most helpful to him.)
Not sure that I've heard of any pitchers becoming more accurate following the surgery. That's not to say it hasn't happened, of course.
Posted by: A good QB is hard to find! | Apr 16, 2008 12:52:24 PM
Good job Procton basing your opinion on NCAA stats. Lets sign up Timmy Chang.
Posted by: LeeL | Apr 16, 2008 12:55:58 PM
Hurney is pulling your chain and Carolina is not drafting Ryan. Anybody with knowledge of the Carolina Panthers and an education higher than the 5th grade would know that Fox and Hurney have to win now and don't have the luxury of drafting a QB of tomorrow. Why -- because there is no tomorrow for them if they don't get big-time, play making starters with their first day picks.
...drafting a QB in the first round....what a bunch of morons.
Posted by: Brainiac | Apr 16, 2008 1:05:44 PM
Actually, for all of you Delhomme Naysayers (and trust me I used to be one myself)...I think the last two years have shown just how much of an MVP he is to the Panthers. Look at what that offense has done without him! Saying the offense has been bad is almost a complement to what its actually been. And, from my baseball experience...and there is a lot of it...of the 20 or so people I've worked with who had Tommy John, all but maybe 1 or 2 came back with double the arm strength. There's no reason to think a gamer like Delhomme's arm wouldn't have the same conclusion. Jake will be fine, if not even better. Matty Moore is gonna be good as well. He is by no means "just a back up." Let's take Harvey in Round 1 and maybe use the 2 3rd rounders to get back into late round 1 and take Cherlios (sp?).
Posted by: Wes | Apr 16, 2008 1:14:24 PM
I don't know who the "star" you think we have at RB is, GQB...as for Toefield, if he was really that good, shouldn't he have been able to be ahead of Greg Jones and Alvin Pearman on the depth chart? I think he'll end up as our best-short yardage option (because we know DeAngelo can't run between the tackles to save his life), but I don't think he's got much more to offer than that.
Gholston would be an upgrade over Johnson or McClover, but I don't know that it would be to the extent that it'd be worth passing on filling a bigger need or burying one of those guys way deep on the depth chart.
Also, I disagree completely with your "value" philosophy. When it comes to first-rounders, it's about immediate on-field impact, particularly if you're not coming off a 12+-win season. We need to get better, and Ryan won't help the team do that for a few years at the very least.
Finally, I don't think accuracy has really been effected by elbow injuries. A pitcher's control was very likely to be close to what it was before.
And Leel, there is a HUGE difference between Brett Basanez and Timmy Chang. While Chang threw more often and had better raw numbers, Basanez was ALWAYS the more efficient QB in terms of avoiding turnovers. Further, he did play under center plenty of the time during college, as opposed to Chang, who was almost exclusively in the shotgun. Physically, Basanez is taller, thicker, and more mobile. Finally, the guy has better arm strength and way better downfield accuracy than Chang or Matt Moore. Moore may have the confidence of his teammates with his world-class intangibles, blah blah blah, but in terms of quarterback skills, Basanez is definitely ahead. All Moore showed last year in leading us to stunning offensive displays of 13 points each in the only two real games he played was that he won't lose the game for you, nothing more.
Posted by: Michael Procton | Apr 16, 2008 1:15:57 PM
I hope the Panthers are blowing smoke. Picking Ryan would be a diaster. He might end up a good pro, but could also be a backup/bust. Take the tackle and be happy. Moore showed last year he can be the guy. If Matt shows any growth, than QB should be fine.
Posted by: jbw | Apr 16, 2008 1:31:07 PM
I agree with Brainiac. Hurney and Fox are no more serious about drafting Ryan than Pacman Jones is about becoming a decent human being. It's just a diversion game. And history has shown that they would more likely trade down to get more picks, than trade up and lose picks. Not gonna happen!
Posted by: Wayne D | Apr 16, 2008 1:31:50 PM
Well the Basanez/Moore situation will be figured out in preseason for what should make one of the most entertaining position battles we've had in quite some time. (Can somebody say lots of passes by those two in the preseason?) As for passes by Ryan, well you'll have to go somewhere else for that. Hurney is doing what many GM's do at this time of year: garnering trade interest and inflating draft stock of players we have no hope of getting. Think about it, by doing this New England is more interested in trade discussions which are always worth at least looking into, and teams like Baltimore are now more worried that "their guy" won't fall to them. I don't think New England is getting much interest in their pick right now (I mean who wants to trade with them? they always seem to come out on top in those), so if we end up with the seventh pick and Ryan is still up there, Baltimore can't sit easy assuming we're going to pick an OT or DE. They may be willing to trade up with us and then all of a sudden we have an 8th pick, for better value. Lot's of ifs and speculation I know, but Hurney's trying to cover all the bases. He knows we need to make a splash in the draft, it just won't be with Ryan.
Posted by: Christian | Apr 16, 2008 1:43:20 PM
Drafting for NEED is EXACTLY what you DO NOT DO. If Ryan is the best player on the board at 13 you pick him. Case in point: A few years ago the Pittsburgh Steelers had QB Tommy Maddox coming off the Pro Bowl, a proven backup in Charlie Batch, and glaring needs all over the place. They took the best player on the board: Ben Rothlisberger. How did that work out for them?
Posted by: T-Wizz | Apr 16, 2008 2:30:06 PM
T-W, the Steelers got lucky. Had Maddox not gotten injured, that's $1.5 million for a scout team QB. Further, it worked out ok, but a lot of QBs could have won that Super Bowl (including Batch or a healthy Maddox)...Roethlisberger was required to be a game manager his rookie season, nothing more.
Posted by: Michael Procton | Apr 16, 2008 2:35:31 PM
Does anybody remember that we NEED A SAFETY??? How has that sheer fact been so completely forgotten? Terrence Holt had exactly ZERO interceptions last season. Chris Harris is a big hitter, but we need a centerfielder to ball-hawk those long throws. Where is our Ed Reed or Ken Hamlin?
I'd also love a defensive end to attack the QB's blind side -- something we haven't had since Rucker's heyday of a few years ago -- but how about picking a safety somewhere on Day 1 instead of waiting until Round 4 or 5?
Posted by: Air Borden | Apr 16, 2008 2:43:57 PM
Brilliant Michael your comment that Moore will not lose the game for you I believe any coach would take that any day even Fox
Posted by: mark | Apr 16, 2008 4:51:18 PM
All i will say is that Matt Ryan threw 19 picks last year, he was in the ACC and threw 19 picks....thats a hell of a lot of picks for a supposedly elite QB to throw in college.
In fact, he threw the second most picks of any QB in division 1 last year. Only one QB threw more. Yes, he had more attempts but still, thats a lot of picks.
Posted by: Interceptions | Apr 16, 2008 6:14:46 PM
Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers went 15-1 on his rookie season, Maddox lost the first game of the year, Big Ben went 15-0, i believe he was a lil bit more than a 'Game Manager'
But picking Matt Ryan will be a mistake, the main reason he looks so good this year is because theres not that many QBs going this year from decent teams to compare him to.
You really think Matt Ryan woulda been a first rounder last year or the year before that (going off of his stats this year compared to the stats of QBs taken in the first the last 2 years)
Nope
Just because you're the best looking turd in the bowl doesn't mean you're not still a piece of crap.
Posted by: Grits | Apr 16, 2008 6:22:32 PM
Hopefully the Panthers will concentrate on building up both sides of the line early in the draft and add a running back like Cory Boyd from South Carolina in the fourth rd.
Posted by: Richard | Apr 16, 2008 6:25:04 PM
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