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December 05, 2008
Are Panthers closer to being 11-1 or 5-7?
As Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden was praising the Carolina Panthers yesterday, talking about how they are running the ball with "complete authority" and other matters, he said the following:
"They are a 9-3 football team, that is what I see. They're a team that could really have 11 or 12 wins right now."
But is that true? Or are the Panthers closer to being 5-7 than they are to being 11-1 or 12-0?
There's no way they could be 12-0. Gruden's own Buccaneers, who play at Carolina Monday night, put a 27-3 smackdown on the Panthers on Oct. 12 in Tampa.
And where would two other wins come from? Perhaps the most consistent thing about the Panthers this season is when they have lost, they have lost convincingly. Their other two defeats were 45-28 at Atlanta and 20-10 at Minnesota. Though there were moments in the second half when Carolina was in both games, it is a giant reach to say they could've won those games.
But there are games the Panthers have won that they easily could've lost. Here's four -- San Diego, Chicago, Arizona and Green Bay.
The Panthers trailed in the second half of all four games. They beat the Chargers with a TD on the final play. They overcame big margins to beat Chicago and Arizona. They scored a TD with less than two minutes remaining after a near-miracle catch by Steve Smith to defeat the Packers.
Yes, Carolina is 9-3. But 11-1 or 12-0? Not hardly.
They're fortunate, truly fortunate to be 9-3.
Panthers safety Chris Harris said it well near the end of the Green Bay game last week. He was caught on the sidelines by NFL Films cameras saying, "We escaped today."
That's true, and it wasn't the first time this season.
-- Charles Chandler
Posted by Observer Sports on December 5, 2008 at 09:09 AM | Permalink
Comments
Who cares? Bottom line is they won those games and they ARE 9-3.
Posted by: Chris | Dec 5, 2008 9:23:27 AM
You're being too negative -- the Cardiac Cats have earned their 9-3 record. They're a clutch team that can make big plays even when it seems that the roof is caving in. It's more than being "fortunate."
Posted by: ray | Dec 5, 2008 9:25:42 AM
Gotta agree with Chris and Ray - you might as well say that they were fortunate to be in the Super Bowl in '03. A couple close wins are lucky. A pattern of close wins says something about the character of your team.
Posted by: D.J. Williams | Dec 5, 2008 9:35:37 AM
its not unusual, i'm sure most teams who have been involved in very close games could say the same exact thing.
Posted by: matt | Dec 5, 2008 9:43:37 AM
Charles, I watched the Tampa Game last week against New Orleans (while down there on vacation), Tampa should have lost that game. If Shockey had not dropped a sure 1st down pass, they were marching down the field to score the winning TD. Tampa won 3 other games like that one, in the last minute of a game. (1)Tampa vs Chicago 27-24, last second field goal. (2) Tampa vs KC 30-27,last minute field goal. (3) Tampa vs Minn 19-13, Minn throws an Interception while driving for the winning TD with under 2 min to go in the game.. That is why Gruden calls Matt Bryant, Tampa's MVP this year. All the good teams have close games, it doesn't matter how they win them, Only that they win them..!! Stop the Panic articles....for god's sake...!!!
Posted by: Catsnmbr1fan | Dec 5, 2008 9:46:45 AM
They had several close one in 2003 only to turn it up three notches in the playoffs. The key, as the Giants showed last year is to get to the playoffs and then play your best football.
Posted by: Ron | Dec 5, 2008 9:51:41 AM
i'm in agreement w/ the others. they won hands down. playing in the clutch and getting lucky are what make the games fun and keep the crowds there until the end of the game.
they won, point blank, its the end result that matters not how you get there!
Posted by: kyle | Dec 5, 2008 9:58:50 AM
The San Diego Charges have lost like 6 games by fewer than 4 points... the difference b/w good teams and the playoffs is if you win those games.
We could/should have beat Minn.
Posted by: Robert | Dec 5, 2008 10:07:36 AM
"you are what your record says you are."
Posted by: coach fox | Dec 5, 2008 10:20:04 AM
Great article Charles, it really illustrates a point that most Panthers fans are obviously unwilling to accept. Alhtough we won all 9 of those games and deserved the win, it is misleading to suggest that we are playing as well as another 9 win team like the Bucs. A couple mistakes or mis plays and we could easily be 5-7. So that means that the talent level of our team isn't much better than a 5-7 team that has had a couple hard losses. I dont know if this says more about our coaching staff, (which has made adjustments and coached our team well in the closing minutes of games), the heart of our players (which was big enough to gut out wins in the 4th quarters). It could also say something about our coordinators (which gameplans have been so bad that we've been consitently falling behind and having to make comeback drives) or our general manager (who has orchestrated a team with the talent level not much better than a 5-7 team, especially considering the fact that our major weakness in the offseason of defensive tackle was not addressed whatsoever and is now biting us in the butt.) Some say negativity, others call it reality. There's been a reason that we've been 7-9 the last two seasons and we're only a couple of plays away from that being the same thing this year. So has that much really changed for the better?
Posted by: Christian | Dec 5, 2008 10:33:25 AM
Yeah, we had clearly taken the momentum in the Minnesota game with a few minutes left in the first half, until Jake decided it would be a good idea to hold onto the ball on our own 5 yard line for like 7 seconds, long enough for a CORNERBACK to come in and sack him from the STRONG SIDE. If it had been from the blind side, that would be one thing, and if no one was open, that would have been another thing. But the ONLY reason it happened is because Jake locked in on Steve Smith (as usual) from the moment the ball was snapped. Steve was lined up on the left side of the field, it is the only explanation for how Jake could have not even had a clue Antoine Winfield was coming. Not to mention, had he even glanced to the right, he would have seen Muhammad wide open (inevitable on a disguised CB blitz). Then to make matters worse, when he got hit by the 5'9" 180 lb. Winfield, he fumbled the ball like he had just been speared by Demarcus Ware with a head of steam. Winfield recovered and ran in for a touchdown, and you could almost hear the air being let out of the Panthers' momentum. They came back after halftime and looked like a high school team.
Then in the Falcons game, we once again had built momentum and charged back to within 3 in the 4th quarter, then came the 69 yard pass to Harry Douglas. I found this on www2.journalnow.com
"Cornerback Richard Marshall could only shrug at the play that broke the Panthers' backs in their 45-28 loss to the Atlanta Falcons yesterday at the Georgia Dome.
Marshall slipped in coverage on what turned out to be a 69-yard pass from Matt Ryan to Harry Douglas to the Carolina 6-yard line, and the Falcons scored four plays later to push a 24-21 lead to 31-21 with 7:13 remaining.
"I can say I had a chance to make a play, now that it's over," Marshall said. "But, I mean, I didn't make a play and he made a play. That one play just killed us. I wish I had it back, but I've just got to look at film and see the mistake I made and correct it next time."
The Falcons faced third and 11 from their 25, nursing a 3-point lead, when Ryan seemed to underthrow Douglas in the left flat. Douglas adjusted and made the catch as Marshall slipped, then broke another tackle and went all the way to the 6-yard line before safety Chris Harris caught him."
If we had held them on third down here, we would have kept the momentum and you never know what would have happened. We had been moving the ball at will against them up until this play happened. After this play though, our offense fizzled on the next possession, leading to the punt which Douglas returned for a TD, then after we scored on the next drive, we failed an onside kick attempt and gave the Falcons a short field with 2 minutes remaining. The last TD was a gimme, because down by 2 scores with under two minutes, why would the Panthers D really be trying to stop the run hard as if the Falcons were going to try to score again? Personally, I am surprised they weren't taking a knee to begin with.
Regardless, I wouldn't call it a "giant reach" to say that we could have won either of those games.
Now, the pounding the Bucs gave us was just that. Garcia has historically been our nemesis, and I am truly worried about Monday night solely because of his squirrely a##.
Posted by: Steve | Dec 5, 2008 10:49:45 AM
hey christian...I better not catch you and charles again at the dowd steamroom
Posted by: christians boyfriend | Dec 5, 2008 10:54:06 AM
Please don't bash the Panthers. They are one of the best teams in the NFL! If you knew your history that is what makes Championship teams winning the tough games not matter who it is. Look at the Bucs they could easily be 5-7 but they pulled out tough games in the end. All that matters is that final score at the end of the game, not how it was won or loss to get into the playoffs!
Posted by: Cory Meeks | Dec 5, 2008 10:58:58 AM
Panther fans, come join in some good old-fashioned smack talk...http://www.bucschat.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2
Posted by: Tb_Buc | Dec 5, 2008 11:01:16 AM
See I have always thought that good teams find away to win the close ones that can go either way, and that was our problem the last 2 years. In 06 we lost at least 3 games in the 4th, good teams make that one play that will change the game around.
Posted by: Billy | Dec 5, 2008 11:11:02 AM
See I have always thought that good teams find away to win the close ones that can go either way, and that was our problem the last 2 years. In 06 we lost at least 3 games in the 4th, good teams make that one play that will change the game around.
Posted by: Billy | Dec 5, 2008 11:14:13 AM
Yes Christian, that much HAS changed. We let go of Jenkins, not because he was a bad player, but because he was a cancer to our defense. He didn't want to be here, and all he did was negatively affect the ability of our defense to gel. Look at the last two seasons with him in the lineup. And once we got rid of him, there was not a lot of depth in free agency for us to fill that hole. We signed several players, but none of them were marquee DTs, because there weren't any marquee DTs available. Also, before you make the draft argument, Sedrick Ellis and Glenn Dorsey were gone long before our first pick, and the next best guy (Trevor Laws) was seen as a third round talent at best (the Eagles reached for him in the second round).
Now I agree with you that our D-line needs to be beefed up, but when there aren't players available, there aren't players available. I also agree with you on our coordinators being garbage. Trgo is worthless. Ever since he came in, we have lost our ability to get to the QB and to create turnovers, which was this team's bread and butter during our Super Bowl run of 2003. He doesn't blitz enough, and when he does, he doesn't know how to disguise it, so everyone and their grandmother knows it is coming. We are 31st in the league in sacks, and 27th in turnovers, and that is not for lack of talent. If it was lack of talent, we would not be 11th in total defense despite not having many big, game-changing plays. Trgo is not putting our players in position to make big plays based on terrible playcalling, and the players are only keeping us afloat BECAUSE of their talent.
Regardless, this team is very different than the 7-9 teams of the past couple of years. Key point, they are WINNING the close games instead of losing them. Look at how many close losses we have over the last couple of years, and how many close wins we have this year. Based on coaching style, we are a conservative team, not built to blow people out. If we are winning the close games, that is the key, because it shows our heart. So yes, a lot HAS changed, and I get so sick of reading on here about how bad our players are. Personally, I think we have one of the greatest groups of guys in the league, talent-wise, and in the regard that (aside from Steve's temper) you don't hear about any of our players getting arrested for drugs, assaults, shooting other people, or even shooting themselves week in and week out.
Posted by: Steve | Dec 5, 2008 11:18:20 AM
I'm not trying to bash on the Panthers...I'm as big a fan as anyone and I watch the same games you do. Good teams find a way to win, thats for sure. So we deserve 9 wins. I never said anything to the contrary. And if we get hot like the Giants did last year and do well in the playoffs then great. I'm just playing devil's advocate and maybe help some fans realize that this team is not perfect and has some flaws that need to be addressed before the MNF and playoffs if we make it. If you can sit there and talk about how we were better than our 7-9 record last year and make excuses about how we could've won more with Jake back, then you should be able to do the same thing this year and realize that we could've easily lost more this year. The fact is we're not there yet, and we should always be striving towards perfection...not resting on our laurels. We need improved tackling, better gameplans from our coordinators, and a better performance from Jake Delhomme if we want to win the Super Bowl. Just saying. There's a reson why we lost to the Bucs...and our defense has only gotten worse since then. Granted, our rushing attack has gotten better, but our passing attack is just as bad.
Posted by: Christian | Dec 5, 2008 11:22:30 AM
Well if they cut Nick Goings like they should have in training camp, they'd be 10-2 because that loss to the Vikings never would have happened
Posted by: Wes | Dec 5, 2008 11:32:07 AM
Steve - Yeah, I agree, Trgo sucks. I think Davidson is better than Henning, and I think a large part of the offenses struggles is directly due to Jake Dehlomme. As far as the DT situation is concerned, it started before this year with overpaying for Ma'ake. Im pleased with the beginning of our draft, I'd rather have Otah and Stewart than a DT any day. We probably could have picked one up in the middle though. Or perhaps signing a veteran at DT instead of DJ Hackett.
Posted by: Christian | Dec 5, 2008 11:38:20 AM
Looking back now, signing a DT instead of hackett would have been great......or for that matter a DT instead of Muhammed, who has absolutely killed this offense at crucial points SEVERAL times this season...........but at the time, the signing of Hackett looked great if he could stay on the field. Unfortunately, he hasn't.
Posted by: Wes | Dec 5, 2008 11:42:24 AM
Christian, dear, please quit stealing my panties. I really need them. Buy your own.
Love,
Your Mom
Posted by: Christian's Mom | Dec 5, 2008 11:42:48 AM
I have to lay a lot of the lack of passing game on the receivers. There's no doubt Jake laid an egg in Oakland, but any other "bad" game that Jake has had can be put on the receivers even more than it can be put on Jake. His two picks vs. tampa the first time around were bother passes that were tipped and should have been caught (Mohammed and Rosario). There have been countless drops and a couple of inopportune fumbles by the receivers. Steve Smith alone has dropped 2 TD's and a third went through his fingers against Atlanta that completely changed the game.
"High" throw or not- a STAR NFL RECEIVER makes that catch 10 out of 10 times. Throw that ontop of the other crucial drops he's had this year, and there is a lot to look down at about the receiving core..........and they know it.
Posted by: Scott | Dec 5, 2008 11:50:25 AM
Scott, just as our receivers have had some tipped passes that led to ints, opposing DBs have dropped several easy ints as well. It all evens out during the course of a season. Just as Steve has made several ridiculous catches and bailed Jake out, he also has a few easy drops.
Jake was terrible in the game against Oakland, and mediocre against Detroit, but outside of those two games, I agree that he has played relatively well all season and great at times.
Posted by: Mason | Dec 5, 2008 12:04:04 PM
This article is complete nonsense and garbage. Does everyone forget that Bill a Cheat and the New England Pay Chee its won all 3 of their Superbowls on a last second field goal....including our run? And, the only reason they got to the 01 SB was because of a blown call of the "tuck rule" Tom Shady fumbled that ball against the Braiders. Football is more than a game of talent..yes, luck does come into play sometimes. And I'll take a W every time with a little luck! All the players are too good and on equal ground to say one out performs the other every day.....sometimes you need lady luck on your side.
Posted by: The Truth | Dec 5, 2008 12:09:09 PM
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