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March 09, 2010

Blog projects two extra picks for Panthers

One blogger who's created a niche for himself with his research has weighed in, and predicts the Panthers will be awarded two extra compensatory draft picks later this month.

Comp picks are usually doled out at the owner's meetings in late March, and are given to teams who suffered net losses in free agency the previous year.

This guy, who goes by AdamJT13  (efforts to ferret out his identity have been unsuccessful), knows his stuff. He's uncannily accurate at predicting a process the league won't reveal the formula for, but which is based on the salary and production of players who are signed away. As hobbies go, it's not quite ship-in-a-bottle building, but the guy's pretty good at it.

He and I bounced some emails back and forth last fall, and he thought then the Panthers might get a fifth and a sixth for losing C Geoff Hangartner and G Frank Omiyale, and possibly a seventh for losing KR Mark Jones.

After grinding through the final numbers, he's settled on a pair of sixths, with an outside chance of getting an extra seventh for Jones.

I'd recommend reading him, if only for a window into how the process works. The guy has put a lot of time in this, and he's much more accurate than any of the mock drafters you're going to find in the blogosphere.

At the moment, the Panthers have five picks: Their own second, third, fourth and seventh, and Oakland's sixth.

The first (17th overall) went to San Francisco for DE Everette Brown, the fifth to Kansas City for DT Tank Tyler and the sixth to Cleveland for DT Louis Leonard.

The Panthers should do much better on comp picks in '11, given the loss of DE Julius Peppers and more to come. The highest comp picks given are at the end of the third round, so it's easy to see the Panthers getting something in the high 90s next year, with more depending on who else follows Peppers out the door.

— Darin Gantt

Posted by Observer Sports on March 9, 2010 at 01:40 PM | Permalink


This helps shed some light on where the Panthers expect to get the young players needed to round out their roster in the ongoing youth movement.

Posted by: Local | Mar 9, 2010 2:52:37 PM

They are setting themselves up for a 2011 draft with a possiblity of having 10-13 picks to continue adding potential good players.

But what i don't understand, why aren't the Panthers getting a 2nd rounder for Peppers who still has lots of vaule of being paid lots of money by the Bears?

Posted by: josh smith | Mar 9, 2010 3:03:57 PM


Posted by: J.E.MITCHELL | Mar 9, 2010 3:16:05 PM

This would be a big help with the Panther's needs. Perhaps Miami would give up Tyler Thigpen for the Oakland sixth round pick since comp picks cannot be traded. He would be a perfect b/u QB to Matt Moore (not too much of a push...but a viable player if MM is injured).
Hope the Panthers use the second round pick on a WR and third round on developmental QB (Jevon Snead would be my pick).

Posted by: GooseCreek | Mar 9, 2010 3:16:42 PM

@ GooseCreek

Why draft Jevon S so early in the 3rd? He is projected to be a 4th thru 5th round draft.


If the Panthers draft him with the 1st pick, then its a waist of a pick. For any person to change their throwing a month before the draft is dumd.

Theirs other QBs thats better than Tewbow, in which i don't understand why hes the 3rd best QB behind Bradford/Clausen to be taking.

Tony Pike, Dan L, and Jevon S look like potential good QBs, that u don't have to make them change their throwing motion.

They just need to learn not to make mental mistakes of throwing causley picks.

Posted by: josh smith | Mar 9, 2010 3:52:47 PM

Whoever wanted to know why we would not get a 2nd for Peppers - the answer is that the very earliest a compensatory pick can be is at the end of the 3rd. The 1st two rounds, and really the 3rd as well are off limits. The compensatory picks come in after the first three rounds have played out.

Posted by: swizzlesticks | Mar 9, 2010 4:04:30 PM

Josh smith Tony pike are you serious? LOL

i understand why you wouldn't want tebow, but Snead pike ect. Would just be a reach. I don't think tebow will be very good and I'd prefer we pick a WR but if we are going to pick somebody, it better be Tebow. Why?

1.) it would finally get the panthers on tv
2.) make the offseason very interesting
3.) his intangibles are off the charts which fox and hurney love
4.) POTENTIALLY (though admittedly doubtful) he could make it big and revolutionize the position.
5.) it's about time the panthers get the premier QB the franchise has craved forever

but like I said, if not Tebow get a WR don't reach on a scrub like Pike

Posted by: Gamble20 | Mar 9, 2010 4:25:49 PM

It's really sorta ridiculous you have to wait until the NEXT offseason for your compensatory picks. I don't really understand why.

And as for the guy who wondered why we wouldn't get a second, it's because that's not fair. Second and first round picks are FAR too valuable to just give around. Part of free agency is losing big time players with nothing in return that's just the way it is.

Posted by: Gamble20 | Mar 9, 2010 4:29:02 PM

Tony Pike sucked in the combine. Please, if were gonna get a QB it's gotta be Tebow. At least Tebow had a good combine, pike just sucked. Snead isn't even good enough for the NFL.

Posted by: Lolpalooza | Mar 9, 2010 4:30:35 PM

Darin this might be the most informative and insightful thing written on the team since the end of the season. Keep in touch with AdamJT13 and try to get him on staff!

Posted by: manu4t | Mar 9, 2010 4:39:02 PM

@ Josh Smith - I am with you on Pike and LeFevour, LeFevour being the better of the 2 by far though. They both played well and looked WAY better than Tebow in Mobile. I would use that game as a measure rather than the combine. However I think we can get either of them in the 3rd rd and if we sign Derek Anderson maybe we dont draft a QB this year at all since the pool is thin in the draft. I would rather see us pick up a couple of WRs - LaFell and Shipley, or Gilyard if he makes it through the 1st rd.

Posted by: manu4t | Mar 9, 2010 4:42:15 PM


Just becuz u have a good combine doesn't always end on a positive note of being a good QB. Right or Wrong?

Just ask Alex S, Joey H, Jemarcus R and many bust QBs that were in last decade that had a good combine, but sucked when gotten on the field.

Look at how many people suck in the combine and turnt out to be franchise QBs. Tom B, Kurt W, Tony R, and so many other QBs.

Having a good combine always dictate u being successful.

Posted by: josh smith | Mar 9, 2010 4:44:37 PM

Having a good doesn't always dictate being a successful QB in the NFL.

@ manu4t

Derek A wouldn't be a bad ideal to sign. He can compete with Moore for the starting spot or being a quality back up.

But from what im hearing, teams such as the Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals that are looking for a QB are interested in bringing him in to even start or compete for the starting QB spot.

Posted by: josh smith | Mar 9, 2010 4:50:59 PM

Having a good combine doesn't trasnlate to the field.

Posted by: josh smith | Mar 9, 2010 4:52:10 PM

If the Panthers were to sign Derek A. Then they wouldn't have to worry about drafting a QB.

As for Wr, they better not draft anymore USC Wrs, its getting old.

Guys like Gilyard, Tate, Decker, Thomas, Desmond B, and other good WRs are who they should consider drafting.

Posted by: josh smith | Mar 9, 2010 5:01:00 PM

some of you seem to forget that we have a q.b now who is probably not much older than the guys in the draft and has already proven that he can play and win in the pros.hes 25 years old and his name is matt moore.

Posted by: ray | Mar 9, 2010 5:02:53 PM

remember the last QB jerry fell in love with but didn't try to get. his name is payton and the colts wern't too different from us now! I think if they love Tebow they should take him instead of waiting for "it it what it is" to show up!

Posted by: blueblurring | Mar 9, 2010 5:16:01 PM

@ blueburring

How exactly was Jerry going to "try to get" Peyton Manning? He was the first overall pick of the draft. Indy needed a QB and they weren't going to trade the pick. And once they drafted him, they were going to pay him whatever he wanted for as long as he wanted.

Posted by: Tim | Mar 9, 2010 5:23:05 PM

@ blueblurring

Everybody loves Tewbow, but to draft him as ur 1st pick is waisting ur time.

Hes no way near Peyton M level, majority of every team wanted him at the time.

As far as "it is what it is" to show up, Tewbow will be a bench warmer of having to adjust to the speed of the NFL.

Posted by: josh smith | Mar 9, 2010 5:27:05 PM

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