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February 16, 2011

McShay: Bowers the better pick for Panthers

Todd McShay is one of the only NFL draft analysts who has Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers ranked ahead of Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley in his latest mock draft.

It's not a huge difference – McShay has Bowers-Fairley rated 1-2, while Mel Kiper and most other draft experts have the players flip-flopped.

McShay, director of college football scouting for ESPN Scouts Inc., understands the Panthers, who own the top pick, have a greater need at defensive tackle.

But McShay, a former University of Richmond quarterback, has seen more consistency from Bowers, who led the nation with 15.5 sacks last season, than he has from Fairley.

“I think he's going to be a complete player,” McShay said Wednesday during a conference call. “I'm not saying he's going to be Julius Peppers. But he has that type of physical ability and potential to be a big, powerful defensive end that can get after the quarterback and become a huge difference-maker.”

As disruptive as Fairley was during Auburn's championship season, McShay said the fact Fairley started only one full season for the Tigers raises red flags.

“The one year of production at the highest level, the fact that he was a rotating starter the year before, it makes me nervous,” McShay said. “I've seen him take some plays off on tape that Da'Quan Bowers doesn't take off. And that makes me nervous, as well.”

McShay believes the Panthers, who do not have a second-round pick, might trade down if they found a team willing to package a number of picks. But even with the likelihood that signing the No. 1 pick will cost less this year – assuming a rookie wage scale is part of the new CBA – McShay does not think the Panthers will find a trade partner.

“If you're, let's say, Washington at 10, you don't want to have to pay the number of picks to move up to No. 1 because then you lose out on the opportunity – I probably shouldn't use Washington as an example because they're always willing to give away picks,” McShay said, zinging Redskins owner Daniel Snyder.

“But overall most teams are not – from a draft philosophy standpoint – willing to give up the type of picks that it takes to get to that No. 1 spot. So I think Carolina's going to be there at 1.”

The Fairley-versus-Bowers debate figures to rage until the draft starts April 28 – and maybe for years to come. And then there's Cam Newton.

Lockout or not, these next 10 weeks should be interesting.

--Joseph Person

 

Posted by Observer Sports on February 16, 2011 at 03:19 PM | Permalink

Comments

I can't disagree with that assessment. There are a few too many red flags with Fairley to gamble the 1st round pick on him; even though DT is the bigger need... If the Panthers are feeling saucy and they want to go big-risk, big-reward, then they should pull the trigger on Cam Newton. Otherwise, the smart and safe money is on Bowers.

Posted by: anon | Feb 16, 2011 3:45:05 PM

I can't disagree with that assessment. There are a few too many red flags with Fairley to gamble the 1st round pick on him; even though DT is the bigger need... If the Panthers are feeling saucy and they want to go big-risk, big-reward, then they should pull the trigger on Cam Newton. Otherwise, the smart and safe money is on Bowers.

Posted by: anon | Feb 16, 2011 3:45:07 PM

I can't disagree with that assessment. There are a few too many red flags with Fairley to gamble the 1st round pick on him; even though DT is the bigger need... If the Panthers are feeling saucy and they want to go big-risk, big-reward, then they should pull the trigger on Cam Newton. Otherwise, the smart and safe money is on Bowers.

Posted by: anon | Feb 16, 2011 3:45:09 PM

WHO LISTEN TOO TODD MCSHAY ANY WAY THIS IS THE SAME GUY THAT SAID LAST YEAR JAKE LOCKER WILL BE THE NUMBER ONE OVER ALL PICK THIS YEAR DRAFT.THIS IS JUST TRYING TO CREATE STATE OF CONFUSION.HE AND HIS ESPN CRONIES DONT HAVE THE PANTHERS BEST INTRUST.

Posted by: t rex | Feb 16, 2011 3:51:11 PM

Why draft another DEnd for the 3rd straight year in which they have drafted both Brown and Hardy over the past 2yrs? Only way I say draft a DEnd(late round) if Charles J isn't resign. Trade back to 3 or 4 and draft AJ Green, don't reach on Newton ( #1 overall) for him to be the next player to be thrown under the bus after 1yr. You know just like Clausen was being hype up, now they give up on you.

"The one year of production at the highest level, the fact that he was a rotating starter the year before, it makes me nervous,” McShay said. “I've seen him take some plays off on tape that Da'Quan Bowers doesn't take off. And that makes me nervous, as well.”

Funny how Bowers had 4 sacks in his first 2yrs in college to not be mention to take plays off. He as well is a 1yr wonder, who he even mention had a poor work ethic before this season to boost his draft status. Unless he was battling through injuries, matter of fact he is having surgery for a torn meniscus.

Posted by: oh wow | Feb 16, 2011 3:59:50 PM

@t rex

I agree, but stop it with the caps lol.

Posted by: oh wow | Feb 16, 2011 4:05:38 PM

he's not better than Hardy. all our d-line will improve as soon as they get a dt who commands a double team. how would you like seeing Beason run around because Fairly has to be doubled teamed or he's in the backfield.

Posted by: joe cool | Feb 16, 2011 4:38:33 PM

@ oh wow, good assessment. Trading down a few spots for AJ is what I've wanted them to do from the start. McShay says teams won't want to give up the picks it would take to move up to #1, but he's talking about teams outside the top 5. Buffalo or Cincy or someone like that would only have to give us a 2nd or 3rd rounder to move up, and we could then take Green and replace the pick we lost in the Armanti deal. Also not a big fan of Bowers (a little biased as a Gamecock fan, but still). We have more promising players at DE than DT. If we do get stuck with the #1 pick, I think we have to go with Fairley. Can't reach for Newton and as much as I like AJ I can't see us taking him #1 overall.

Posted by: DB | Feb 16, 2011 4:40:28 PM

Nick is a pretty big risk, he has bust written all over him. we really Dont need and end, and while Green would be nice, we have 3 young recievers, a 3rd and sorta a 2nd rounder, plus gettis, whos the best of the 3. My vote is Peterson. Physically perfect, we need a corner. It will allow Capt. to stay inside and give our defense the ability to be more aggressive. We need a CB in this pass drivin league to stop Ryan, Brees and now Freeman.

Posted by: Sin | Feb 16, 2011 4:42:02 PM

Nick is a pretty big risk, he has bust written all over him. we really Dont need and end, and while Green would be nice, we have 3 young recievers, a 3rd and sorta a 2nd rounder, plus gettis, whos the best of the 3. My vote is Peterson. Physically perfect, we need a corner. It will allow Capt. to stay inside and give our defense the ability to be more aggressive. We need a CB in this pass drivin league to stop Ryan, Brees and now Freeman.

Posted by: Sin | Feb 16, 2011 4:42:02 PM

Draft Newton. There is a great possibility there will be no season anyway, and if that is the case, there will be a do-over. Then they have the chance to get Luck. Either way youget a QB

Posted by: beufordtjustice | Feb 16, 2011 4:47:30 PM

Yes, it'd be brilliant to draft a DE. Then we could guarantee we wasted a pick on Johnson, Brown, Hardy, or Bowers himself. I guess it would be like drafting a QB, guaranteeing we wasted picks on Clausen, Edwards, Pike, or the new guy. Get a DT...WE DON'T HAVE ONE!

Posted by: Michael Procton | Feb 16, 2011 5:02:26 PM

I say if the Panthers go Defense and can not trade out, go with Fairley. He does have red flags, but so did Hardy coming out. Sometimes the red flags are a product of where the individual is coming from.

On top of that I would like to see them try to trade back into the 2nd round and draft Marvin Austin from UNC, could you imagine having Charles Johnson, Marvin Austin, Nick Fairley, and Greg Hardy staring? I think that could develop into a better front four then the line from our SB year. Of course, it could also be a big flop... lol

Posted by: Rick | Feb 16, 2011 5:40:16 PM

"Draft Newton. There is a great possibility there will be no season anyway, and if that is the case, there will be a do-over. Then they have the chance to get Luck. Either way you get a QB".

So draft Newton to end up eventually drafting Luck the next year? Damn thats the dumbest thing I heard of, might as well draft a QB for the next 5-10yrs until they get in right?

Posted by: oh wow | Feb 16, 2011 6:04:53 PM

"On top of that I would like to see them try to trade back into the 2nd round and draft Marvin Austin from UNC, could you imagine having Charles Johnson, Marvin Austin, Nick Fairley, and Greg Hardy staring?"

That would be fun to see to be honest, but don't see it happening though. Matter of fact they could pass on Nick F and draft Green( if they could trade back to regain a 2nd rounder)to draft Marvin L( 2nd or 3rd in which he is projected to go) and another DT later on in the draft or FA.

Since the offense sucked so bad they should use the 1st pick to improve it even better( that is if Smith is traded). Can't have enough good wr's such as the Packers having 4-5 deep good to solid receivers. Especially if one of them gets hurt, they would have a good replacement to fill in.

Posted by: oh wow | Feb 16, 2011 6:16:42 PM

Marcell D would be a good pick @ the 4-6 spot,who has experience playing in both a 3-4/4-3 scheme. Matter of fact he has way more upside than Nick F from playing in 2 different scheme(not saying he is better than Nick F).

I wouldn't be surprise if Ron R uses a hybrid 4/3-3/4 scheme at times. We don't know what will happend come draft day, but if they could trade back then Green or Marcell D should be consider with the first pick.

Just wishful thinking, but it would be nice to see Marvin or Nevis drop right in the Panthers hands to draft later in the 2nd( if can regain the pick) or 3rd to get one of them. If theirs a lockout the Panthers would likely( don't know for sure) have the first pick in the 2012 draft to get Luck. For one he will have good options @ receiver with Smith, Green, Gettis, Lafell, and AE already here. A good running game but a questionable Oline though.

Posted by: marksmith7241 | Feb 16, 2011 6:54:45 PM

We have not had a star DT since 2006. Enough is enough; draft Fairley! Bowers plays stiff; has no flexibility on his outside rush to get around the OTs. He plays like a DT but at DE. The only thing he has is strength and closing speed. He's not a complete DE in the slightest.

Posted by: Nate | Feb 16, 2011 7:09:01 PM

For all the trade down commenters, you have to have a team willing to trade with you. Not going to happen! This is a bad year to be picking first for any team unless someone stuns at the combine. I'm hoping for that but don't count on it.

Posted by: Jimbo | Feb 16, 2011 8:09:47 PM

i say Fairley, Robert quinn, newton or von miller
are the BPA's

Posted by: e | Feb 16, 2011 10:45:25 PM

i would shit in my pants if Carolina didnt pick Cam Newton.. sure he cant read defenses.. but its the NFL - not highschool football. Defensive minds dont sleep and they dont make mistakes.. luck may have had a photo memory.. but when you are going up against guys like rex and his gang.. youre screwed.. ask BRady. I would rather bet on athletism on a guy like Cam Newton.. should he Fail.. he can always Play receiver lol. Than bet on luck ONly to have him Fizz out in 2 years. Its a better investment imo.. really if you think about it.. who wants a strong Defense.. if all they do is stay on the field all the time.. the same guy who would have been there for 12 yrs only stays for 5 yrs cause of tear and wear.. Crazy really.

Posted by: nick | Feb 16, 2011 11:30:53 PM

i would shit in my pants if Carolina didnt pick Cam Newton.. sure he cant read defenses.. but its the NFL - not highschool football. Defensive minds dont sleep and they dont make mistakes.. luck may have had a photo memory.. but when you are going up against guys like rex and his gang.. youre screwed.. ask BRady. I would rather bet on athletism on a guy like Cam Newton.. should he Fail.. he can always Play receiver lol. Than bet on luck ONly to have him Fizz out in 2 years. Its a better investment imo.. really if you think about it.. who wants a strong Defense.. if all they do is stay on the field all the time.. the same guy who would have been there for 12 yrs only stays for 5 yrs cause of tear and wear.. Crazy really.

Posted by: nick | Feb 16, 2011 11:30:53 PM

can we wait until the combines are over before we write off fairly?

Posted by: rafi | Feb 16, 2011 11:59:29 PM

Why is everybody so high on Cam Newton? We don't need a copycat Michael Vick. Sure he's mobile and all, but to win games you need a great offensive line and excellent receivers.

Posted by: VickMick | Feb 17, 2011 1:52:33 AM

I would rather have a "copycat Vick" than the worst starting QB in the NFL in Jenny Clausen. What's with you people in Charlotte? Don't you think having an athlete at QB will atleast move the ball down the field better than a short, immobile, loser who rolls out the pocket and can't throw the ball downfield?

Posted by: D.W.G. | Feb 17, 2011 6:52:48 AM

plain and simple, no possible carolina redneck fan want to see a young black stud at qb, so they will give you all the excuses in the world not to draft newton, he can't read defense, he is dumb, c'mon people stop being so about "black and white, this guy is an much better athlete, he reminds me of josh freeman of tampa bay and you see how that guy play, why not take a chance on newton, at least we will be in the spotlight with the newton pick..i bet 3 years from now ehn we miss out on newton and he is playing great ball in the nfl, the same morons will be talking we should have drafted that guy, same old story with the panthers..

Posted by: callingitlikeiseeit | Feb 17, 2011 8:44:05 AM

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